The future of Marketing and Advertising – using leverage (and risk) to create billions in value.

Yes, I know the title sounds ludicrous. After all, the unbridled appetite for risk from those Wall Street buffoons almost took us to economic Armageddon. But underneath the greed and recklessness, is a sophisticated system of evaluating upside (profit) against downside (risk) that marketers can learn – and profit – from. And do it in a way in which they get paid for real value created and delivered to the market, rather than the vapor of value creation based on the financial engineering of Wall Street. Curious? Then go grab a beverage – since this isn’t a 140 character tweet – and let me show you how a little creativity and innovation from Marketers can have Wall Street wondering how someone else besides them is making a boatload of money.
Let’s start with a quick test: name one specific advertisement that you’ve seen in the last 24 hours? You’ve easily been exposed to hundreds of them, so name just one. Most normal people aren’t able to. If you were abnormal enough to answer that, here’s another: when was the last time you made a purchase as a result of a cleverly conceived direct marketing offer? I’ll bet most of you draw a blank on that one too.
$140 Billion will be spent on advertising this year in the US. That’s $458 for each man, woman, and child in this country. Some recession we are in. Somehow, all that dogged persuasion leads to $5.2 trillion in direct and indirect spending attributed to advertising. Staggering numbers for sure. But let’s stop and ask a fundamental question. Are those billions of dollars in advertising spend efficiently allocated? In other words, is it possible that we could we get the same level of economic activity if advertisers only spent 80% of what they actually spend today? The answer is a resounding yes.
Many of those billions spent on advertising are simply wasted, creating no economic value whatsoever. We’ve all seen plenty of poorly conceived and utterly ineffective ads, so I’ll spare you the data on that. You may have heard of the famous advertising axiom from a pioneering department store merchant “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is, I don’t know which half”.
Now, most buyers and sellers of advertising would say that it is a fairly efficient market driven by the fundamentals of supply of ad inventory (publishers & media) and demand of ad inventory (advertisers and agencies) – and they may be right – it is a fairly efficient market on the buy and sell side. But inefficiencies occur in companies and industries, as well as markets.
For example, the kings of private equity on Wall Street are the LBO (leveraged buyout) companies such as Blackstone and the Carlyle group. These firms don’t care much about market inefficiencies – they look to profit from inefficient companies. They look for companies that are poorly run and operated, so that they can use their ownership to turn them around and mint some serious money in the process. Whether they create their wealth largely through financial engineering is often debated, but that is not the point here. What they brilliantly have figured out is how to master the concept of leverage to generate massive profits. In the case of LBO’s, leverage is in the form of debt – lots of it! The LBO model has built powerful firms run by billionaire financiers, some of whom famously spend $3 million to celebrate their 60th birthday. But I digress…
Just as Wall Street benefits from inefficiencies in markets and companies, let’s take a look at how bold marketers can benefit from the massive inefficiencies in the advertising industry.
First, let’s make a simple distinction. Marketing and Advertising since they are not the same thing. Advertising is one component of Marketing, but successful commercialization of a product or service goes beyond just the advertising. Product packaging, design, presentation, pricing, messaging, distribution, etc. are all part and parcel of the function of Marketing – of which advertising is just one piece.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s talk about “leverage”. There are different kinds of leverage, and even though use of the term has been restricted to the world of finance – the function of Marketing is a perhaps the most powerful form of leverage.
Let’s define what leverage is – it’s simply a way of getting potentially more output or impact (ie. higher return) for a given input or strategy. It’s basically “more bang for your buck”. Defined as such, the concept is as applicable (if not more) to the world of marketing & advertising as it is to finance.
For example, when a company chooses to buy and run an advertisement in any form of paid media – their cost of running that ad is independent of the return they might get. In other words, it costs them the same amount of money to run the ad if they got 1 prospect or customer, 100 prospects or customers, or 1 million prospects or customers. It’s a fixed cost. It is the overall quality of the overall marketing that will determine if the campaign succeeds or fails. There are many potential variables that will impact the response to a specific advertising campaign that go way beyond the advertisement itself.
-Is it a compelling product, service, or solution with a strong value proposition?
-Is it aimed at the proper market or target audience?
-Is the ad well designed with compelling creative and persuasive ad copy?
-Is the message or offer structured in a way to elicit the desired response?
-Is the message placed in the right mix of media (TV, print, direct mail, web display, web search, email, online video, direct mail, social media, blogs, viral/guerilla marketing, affiliates/partnerships, contests/sweepstakes, PR, radio, etc.)
-What type of targeting is used to reach the target market? (Demographic, geographic, psychographic, behavioral, etc.)
-Is the price right? What would a change in price have on demand?
-Is the compelling risk-reversal guarantee or offer to induce the customer to purchase? (Free shipping, money back guarantee, free trial, price protection guarantee, customer service, free upgrades, discounts on future purchases, etc.
-Is the company properly leveraging the goodwill of their existing customers? (Case studies, testimonials, referral programs, etc.)
-How easy is it to try or buy the products? (Friction points or barriers to adoption)
-How does the value prop stack up against the competition?
I could go on and on, but I think you get the point.
In order to a company to achieve maximum yield or ROI from their marketing efforts, all of the above elements been have to be optimized. Thanks to the web, optimization is becoming much more of a scientific and data/metrics driven process than ever before. What is usually unappreciated is how minor changes in several of the variables could lead to big increases in yield or profit. The only way to really know is to test, retest, and continually optimize.
Let me provide you with a real life example of how the power of optimization – small systemic changes consistently applied – can provide massive leverage (impact on results):
The following 2 ads were run in Google Adwords for the keyword search “Ethernet Dictionary”

Very similar ad – Same ad title, same URL. The only difference is that the second and third lines are reversed. The second ad put the benefit statement before the feature. Most people would assume the performance (defined as the click through rate) would be similar for both ads. That would be a fatal mistake.
The ad on the left generated a .1% CTR (one click for every 1,000 impressions)
The ad on the right generated a 3.6% CTR – (one click for every 28 impressions)
That’s an improvement of 3,600%! For a change that is barely noticeable. That’s real leverage. If you happened to be a Wall Street quant, you probably just got pretty excited.
Of course, not all tweaks have that kind of impact. But if you take that simple example, and apply that philosophy of optimization across the entire discipline of marketing – you’re talking about leverage that generates 50x, 100x, 1000x improvements in results or ROI. That sort of leverage is unheard of in the world of finance. The best part is that it results in real value creation that has nothing to do with financial engineering.
Most companies today (both large and small) are nowhere near to generating the optimal profits (upside) of any of their marketing campaigns. Many campaigns outright fail or don’t work. For the ones that do work and generate measurable profit, marketers are usually happy enough that they seldom know how much potential profit they are leaving on the table. It’s the classic “it’s actually working, so don’t mess with it” thinking. They are mostly looking for the “big idea” or “breakthrough ad” that will propel them to new heights, rather than being systematic about optimization.
Take a hypothetical 10 year old B2B widget company that is doing $20 million in revenues by primarily placing ads in trade publications and direct mail. After all, that’s what everyone in their industry has done for years. They may think that they are doing well because they have been consistently profitable and have happy customers. They may not know that they could be doing $100 million in revenues if they did the following:
-Clearly understood the average lifetime value of a customer
-Clearly understood how much they were currently spending on acquiring a customer
-Optimized their entire marketing operation around optimization of the first 2 metrics
-Added new channels for customer acquisition
-Improved product packaging by offering related products and services
-Consistently tested new ad headlines, copy, and product messages
-Changed the sales comp structure to encourage more new customer acquisition
Again, I could go on – but the point is most companies are nowhere near achieving maximum yield from every possible marketing opportunity, strategy, and technique available to them. That spells opportunity.
The future of direct marketing is not paying for advertising, it’s paying for results. Almost any variable related to direct marketing can be tested, tracked, and optimized quickly and with very little cost. Smart entrepreneurs today are using tools like Google Adwords to launch/sell products before building them. It’s classic risk reduction and takes a lot of the guesswork that is typically associated with launching new products, initiatives, and marketing campaigns. This is a huge shift that will have dramatic implications in terms of reducing waste and inefficiencies. Companies like Google have benefitted immensely from this shift, but there will be many others as well.
Which brings us back to Madison Ave versus Wall Street and how marketers can learn from financiers. The bold direct marketers and agencies will recognize the true leverage potential that exists across the entire discipline of marketing, and capitalize on that.
What will this transformation look like? Traditional ad agencies will continue to exist, but a new breed of agency – let’s call it a “Performance Marketing Agency” – will emerge. This has already been happening for years online – with companies and individual affiliates playing the arbitrage game by buying media (assuming the media cost risk) and transforming those clicks into leads or customers for their clients. But the pay for performance model of marketing is much bigger than online arbitrage, which is where it started but most certainly not where it will stop.
The new breed of agency will move away from simply charging their clients for their creative and media buying expertise, and follow in the steps of their Wall Street brethren and embrace the pay for performance ethos and take more risk in exchange for more reward.
They won’t simply be tasked with “advertising” a product after it has been conceived, designed, built, packaged, pitched, priced, and distributed, etc. Instead, they will play a key role in all of those activities.
They will understand the principles of leverage as it related to results in marketing, and use their creativity but also take a metrics/data driven approach to optimizing all aspects of their clients marketing function. They’ll increase profits multi-fold for their clients, and get their fair share of all the incremental profit they bring to their clients. They will win big, but only when their clients win. Their interests and the interest of their client are completely aligned.
Just like the Blackstone group started in 1985 with $400,000 in seed funding from it’s partners, created a massive new asset class, and now stands as a titan of Wall Street – we will see a similar transformation in marketing by pioneers who are ready to venture into new territory. The best part is, they can show Wall Street the true meaning of “Pay for Performance”.